Temporal trends in the Swedish HIV-1 epidemic: increase in non-B subtypes and recombinant forms over three decades

HIV-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) still dominates in resource-rich countries but increased migration contributes to changes in the global subtype distribution. Also, spread of non-B subtypes within such countries occurs. The trend of the subtype distribution from the beginning of the epidemic in the country has earlier not been reported in detail. Thus the primary objective of this study is to describe the temporal trend of the subtype distribution from the beginning of the HIV-1 epidemic in Sweden over three decades.

HIV-1 pol sequences from patients (n = 3967) diagnosed in Sweden 1983-2012, corresponding to >40% of patients ever diagnosed, were re-subtyped using several automated bioinformatics tools. The temporal trends of subtypes and recombinants during three decades were described by a multinomial logistic regression model.

All eleven group M HIV-1 subtypes and sub-subtypes (78%), 17 circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) (19%) and 32 unique recombinants forms (URF) (3%) were identified. When all patients were analysed, there was an increase of newly diagnosed HIV-1C (RR, 95%CI: 1.10, 1.06-1.14), recombinants (1.20, 1.17-1.24) and other pure subtypes (1.11, 1.07-1.16) over time compared to HIV-1B. The same pattern was found when all patients infected in Sweden (n = 1165) were analysed. Also, for MSM patients infected in Sweden (n = 921), recombinant forms and other pure subtypes increased.

Sweden exhibits one of the most diverse subtype epidemics outside Africa. The increase of non-B subtypes is due to migration and to a spread among heterosexually infected patients and MSM within the country. This viral heterogeneity may become a hotspot for development of more diverse and complex recombinant forms if the epidemics converge.