The effect of sample age and prediction resolution on myocardial infarction risk prediction

Myocardial infarction (MI) is one of the leading causes of death in many developed countries. Hence, early detection of MI events is critical for effective preventative therapies, potentially reducing avoidable mortality. One approach for early disease prediction is the use of risk prediction models developed using machine learning techniques. One important component of these models is to provide clinicians with the flexibility to customize (e.g., the prediction range) and use the risk prediction model that they deemed most beneficial for their patients. Therefore, in this paper, we develop MI prediction models and investigate the effect of sample age and prediction resolution on the performance of MI risk prediction models. The cardiovascular health study dataset was used in this study. Results indicate that the prediction model developed using SVM algorithm is capable of achieving high sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy of 95.3%, 84.8%, and 90.1%, respectively, over a time span of 6 years. Both sample age and prediction resolution were found not to have a significant impact on the performance of MI risk prediction models developed using subjects aged 65 and above. This implies that risk prediction models developed using different sample age and prediction resolution is a feasible approach. These models can be integrated into a computer aided screening tool which clinicians can use to interpret and predict the MI risk status of the individual patients after performing the necessary clinical assessments (e.g., cognitive function, physical function, electrocardiography, general changes to health/lifestyle, and medications) required by the models. This could offer a means for clinicians to screen the patients at risk of having MI in the near future and prescribe early medical intervention to reduce the risk.