Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Biology
• Community Ecology

Background:

• Global climate change is altering ecological communities worldwide.
• Biotic interactions can lead to idiosyncratic community responses to climate change, complicating predictions.
• Predictive models incorporating biotic interactions are crucial for understanding these changes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To demonstrate how to construct predictive models for community restructuring under climate change.
• To assess the impact of climate-related changes on a North American ant community.
• To identify key factors influencing species coexistence and vulnerability to climate change.

Main Methods:

• Parameterized a species coexistence model using historical data from an ant community.
• Incorporated factors like thermal niches, food discovery, and removal rates.
• Extended the model to predict community responses to increased temperature, phenological shifts, and altered resource availability.

Main Results:

• Historical coexistence was influenced by thermal niches, food discovery, and removal rates.
• Increased temperature and phenological shifts had contrasting effects on the community.
• The most subordinate ant species was consistently the most negatively affected across climate change scenarios.
• Community responses to warming were non-intuitive; heat-sensitive species were not always the most at risk.

Conclusions:

• Mechanistic models accounting for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs can predict idiosyncratic community responses to climate change.
• Subordinate species face the greatest risk under climate change, even if not the most heat-sensitive.
• Understanding biotic interactions is essential for accurate ecological forecasting in a changing climate.