Spatial and temporal variations in tuberculosis incidence, Nepal

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Tuberculosis (TB) poses a significant public health challenge in Nepal.
• Understanding the geographical and time-based patterns of TB is crucial for effective control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the spatial and temporal variations in TB incidence across Nepal.
• To identify demographic and geographic factors influencing TB rates.

Main Methods:

• Utilized TB case data from the Nepal National Tuberculosis Center (NTC) spanning 2003-2010.
• Employed linear regression models on log-transformed incidence rates to analyze variations by gender, year, and location.
• Validated model fit using residual plots and R-squared statistics.

Main Results:

• Overall TB incidence was 1.31 cases per 1,000 population, with a male-to-female incidence rate ratio of 1.83.
• TB incidence demonstrated increasing trends in recent years for both genders.
• Higher TB rates were concentrated in the Terai region, Kathmandu, and other metropolitan cities, with lower rates in Hill and Mountain regions.

Conclusions:

• Log-linear regression models effectively capture spatial and temporal TB incidence variations.
• Findings highlight the need for targeted public health interventions in high-incidence areas like the Terai and urban centers.
• Data-driven insights can guide the development of specific prevention programs to address Nepal's TB burden.