Using GARP to predict the range of Aedes aegypti in China

Dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever are common mosquito-borne diseases in tropical and subtropical regions, and are mainly transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). The international trade of used tires, coupled with its anthropophilic habit, has enabled Ae. aegypti to colonise new areas in China. We used Genetic Algorithum Rule-Set Production (GARP) to predict the putative current distribution of Ae. aegypti based on data on its distribution 20 years ago and compared this predicted distribution with the known current distribution. The putative distribution corresponded perfectly to the existing distribution. We conclude that GARP is a valid method to predict the putative future distribution of Ae. aegypti, and therefore is an important tool for the surveillance of mosquito-borne diseases in general.