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Updated: Apr 27, 2026

Assessment of Vascular Function in Patients With Chronic Kidney Disease
Published on: June 16, 2014
Mid-adulthood risk factor profiles for CKD
Gearoid M McMahon1, Sarah R Preis2, Shih-Jen Hwang3
1National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study and the Center for Population Studies, Framingham, Massachusetts; Renal Division and.
Insights
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk factors like hypertension and obesity are identifiable 30 years before diagnosis. Early identification of these CKD risk factors is crucial for prevention and managing disease progression.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Epidemiology
- Preventive Medicine
Background:
- Chronic kidney disease (CKD) poses a significant global health burden.
- Early identification of CKD risk factors is essential for timely intervention and prevention of disease progression.
- The long-term trajectory of CKD risk factor development remains incompletely understood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the presence of CKD risk factors up to 30 years prior to diagnosis.
- To determine if specific risk factor profiles precede CKD development.
- To inform early screening and intervention strategies for individuals at risk of CKD.
Main Methods:
- A case-control study utilizing data from the Framingham Offspring Study.
- Incident CKD cases (eGFR ≤60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) were age- and sex-matched to controls without CKD at baseline.
- Logistic regression models analyzed risk factor profiles (hypertension, obesity, triglycerides, HDLc, diabetes) at multiple time points preceding CKD diagnosis.
Main Results:
- Hypertension, obesity, and elevated triglyceride levels were significantly associated with CKD risk 30 years before diagnosis.
- Twenty years prior to diagnosis, hypertension, elevated triglycerides, lower HDLc, and diabetes remained significant risk factors.
- These findings highlight a prolonged period during which CKD risk factors manifest before clinical diagnosis.
Conclusions:
- CKD risk factors are detectable at least 30 years before the clinical diagnosis of CKD.
- Early and sustained identification and management of risk factors are critical for CKD prevention.
- This study underscores the importance of long-term risk factor monitoring in primary care for proactive CKD management.
Abstract:
Early identification of CKD risk factors may allow risk factor modification and prevention of CKD progression. We investigated the hypothesis that risk factors are present ≥30 years before the diagnosis of CKD in a case-control study using data from the Framingham Offspring Study. Patients with incident CKD (eGFR≤60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) at examination cycles 6, 7, and 8 were age- and sex-matched 1:2 to patients without CKD at baseline (examination 5). CKD risk factors were measured at each examination cycle. Logistic regression models, adjusted for age, sex, and time period, were constructed to compare risk factor profiles at each time point between cases and controls. During follow-up, 441 new cases of CKD were identified and matched to 882 controls (mean age 69.2 years, 52.4% women). Those who ultimately developed CKD were more likely to have hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 1.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.23 to 2.51), obesity (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.14 to 2.59), and higher triglyceride levels (OR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.83) 30 years before CKD diagnosis, and were more likely to have hypertension (OR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.79), higher triglyceride levels (OR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.64), lower HDLc (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.97), and diabetes (OR, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.59 to 5.29) 20 years before CKD diagnosis. These findings demonstrate that risk factors for CKD are identifiable ≥30 years before diagnosis and suggest the importance of early risk factor identification in patients at risk for CKD.
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