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Updated: Apr 27, 2026

Development of an Individual-Tree Basal Area Increment Model using a Linear Mixed-Effects Approach
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Evidence for environmentally enhanced forest growth.

Jingyun Fang1, Tomomichi Kato2, Zhaodi Guo3

  • 1Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China;State Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100093, China; jyfang@urban.pku.edu.cn fangjingyun@ibcas.ac.cn.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Environmental changes enhance forest carbon sequestration in Japan. This growth boost, distinct from age-related growth, contributes significantly to the forest carbon sink, impacting biomass and climate change predictions.

Keywords:
biomass carbon sinkforest ageforest inventory

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Area of Science:

  • Forest ecology
  • Biogeochemical cycles
  • Climate change science

Background:

  • Northern hemisphere forests are crucial carbon dioxide (CO2) sinks.
  • Forest carbon sinks are attributed to age-related growth and environmental changes (e.g., elevated CO2, nitrogen deposition, climate change).
  • Attribution between these two carbon sink processes remains controversial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To quantify the growth enhancement due to environmental changes in Japanese forests.
  • To determine the contribution of this growth enhancement to the forest biomass carbon (C) sink.
  • To provide ground-based evidence for the impact of global environmental changes on forest C sequestration.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a unique time series of age-class data from six Japanese national forest inventories.
  • Developed a novel approach to examine changes in biomass density within each age class over inventory periods.
  • Quantified growth enhancement and its contribution to biomass C sequestration.

Main Results:

  • Growth enhancement in four major Japanese plantations (1980-2005) ranged from 4.0 to 7.7 Mg C·ha(-1).
  • This enhancement represented 8.4-21.6% of per-hectare biomass C sequestration and 4.1-35.5% of the total net biomass increase.
  • Growth enhancement varied significantly across forest types, age classes, and regions.

Conclusions:

  • Provided the first ground-based evidence that global environmental changes increase forest C sequestration on a broad scale.
  • Highlighted that tree traits and age are critical regulators of forest growth responses to environmental changes.
  • Emphasized the need to incorporate these findings into predictions of forest C cycling under climate change.