Related Concept Videos
Hindsight Biases
Prediction Intervals
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic
Regression Toward the Mean
Residuals and Least-Squares Property
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
Hypothesis: Accept or Fail to Reject?
There are two ways to indicate that the null hypothesis is not rejected. 'Accept' the null...
You might also read
Related Articles
Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.
Evidence: philosophy of science meets medicine.
Related Experiment Video
Updated: Apr 27, 2026

Quantification of Oculomotor Responses and Accommodation Through Instrumentation and Analysis Toolboxes
Published on: March 3, 2023
Prediction and accommodation revisited.
This paper defends a theory of scientific prediction and accommodation, arguing that temporal order does not significantly impact theory confirmation. It refutes rival accounts by Maher and Lange, asserting the original theory provides the most accurate analysis.
Area of Science:
- Philosophy of Science
- Scientific Methodology
Background:
- The relationship between the temporal order of evidence and theory confirmation is a debated topic in the philosophy of science.
- Existing accounts by Maher and Lange offer alternative perspectives on the significance of temporal considerations in evaluating scientific theories.
Purpose of the Study:
- To further articulate and defend a previously proposed account of prediction and accommodation.
- To critically analyze and refute rival accounts of temporal considerations in theory evaluation.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of the author's existing theory with the accounts proposed by Patrick Maher and Marc Lange.
- Examination of specific examples used by Maher and Lange to illustrate their arguments.
- Logical argumentation to demonstrate the superiority of the author's framework.
Main Results:
- Patrick Maher's account of temporal order in confirmation is shown to lack scientific significance and is considered a variant of the author's own theory.
- Marc Lange's argument that temporal relevance is reducible to avoiding 'arbitrary conjunctions' is found to be unconvincing.
- The author's original account provides the most accurate analysis of the discussed examples.
Conclusions:
- The temporal order of theory and evidence does not play a scientifically significant role in the degree of confirmation.
- The author's theory of prediction and accommodation remains the most robust framework for analyzing these issues.
- Rival accounts by Maher and Lange fail to adequately address the role of temporal considerations in scientific theory evaluation.

