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Confirmation Biases

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The confirmation bias is the tendency to focus on information that confirms our existing beliefs and ignore information that is inconsistent with our expectations. For example, if you think that your professor is not very nice, you notice all of the instances of rude behavior exhibited by the professor while ignoring the countless pleasant interactions he is involved in on a daily basis. Have you ever fallen prey to the confirmation bias, either as the source or target of such bias?

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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 27, 2026

Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies

Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies

Published on: May 9, 2019

Bayesian pseudo-confirmation, use-novelty, and genuine confirmation.

Studies in History and Philosophy of Science

|July 3, 2014

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

This study refutes creationism as scientific by analyzing confirmation theories. It proposes a new confirmation model integrating novelty and probabilistic concepts for genuine scientific hypothesis evaluation.

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Published on: June 3, 2013

Area of Science:

Philosophy of Science
Epistemology
Scientific Methodology

Background:

Comparative Bayesian confirmation theory suggests rationalized creationism is empirically confirmed.
Scientific explanations require robust, non-ad-hoc frameworks, unlike creationism's pseudo-explanations.
Existing confirmation criteria struggle to capture the intuition behind genuine scientific evidence.

Purpose of the Study:

To address objections to the Use Novelty (UN) criterion of confirmation.
To develop a refined concept of genuine scientific confirmation.
To unify the UN-criterion with probabilistic confirmation theory.

Main Methods:

Analyzing the comparative Bayesian concept of confirmation.
Developing solutions for objections to the UN-criterion.
Formulating a probabilistic confirmation model focusing on evidence-transcending hypothesis content.

Main Results:

Rationalized creationism is shown to be empirically confirmed under a specific Bayesian framework.
The limitations of ad-hoc, empirically empty theoretical frameworks are highlighted.
A novel account of genuine confirmation is proposed, integrating UN and probabilistic approaches.

Conclusions:

Creationism, despite apparent Bayesian confirmation, functions as a pseudo-explanation.
The proposed unified confirmation model offers a more robust criterion for scientific validity.
This framework better captures the essence of genuine scientific confirmation by emphasizing predictive and explanatory power beyond mere data fitting.