Work and retirement preferences of practicing radiologists as a predictor of workforce needs

The radiology job market has been described as highly variable, and recent practice hiring surveys predict that the number of available jobs will remain flat. Radiologists may be working more hours and retiring later than desired, activities that influence overall job availability. A national survey was performed to determine the desired work rate and retirement preferences of practicing radiologists, and the responses are used to estimate current and potential future work output and future workforce needs.

Practicing radiologists were surveyed regarding current and preferred work level and desired and expected retirement age. A model incorporating these preferences and stratified by age was developed using survey responses and American Medical Association full-time equivalent (FTE) estimates. Available FTE radiologists are estimated under four scenarios from 2016 to 2031 in 5-year intervals.

The model predicts a total of 26,362 FTE radiologists available in 2011, which corresponds to previous estimates. Participants reported working more hours and expecting to retire later than desired, with younger radiologists and women reporting the greatest desired decrease in FTE hours worked. Under each scenario, there is an initial FTE availability in 2016 ranging from 21,156 to 24,537, which increases to between 27,753 and 31,435 FTE by 2031 depending on work rate and retirement patterns.

Practicing radiologists report that they currently work more hours than desired and expect to retire later than they would prefer. If radiologists changed current personal work rate and expected retirement age to meet these preferences, there would be an immediate shortage of FTE radiologists continuing until at least 2020 assuming no other workforce needs changes.