Predictors of recurrence in breast cancer subtypes with negative lymph node in a Chinese population

To establish a series of objective parameters to predict the risk of relapse from axillary lymph node-negative (ANN) breast cancer, and evaluate the patterns of recurrence according to molecular subtypes, we collected information on 2126 consecutive breast cancer patients operated between 2002 and 2006. In this case-control study, 212 patients experiencing recurrence or breast cancer related death were defined as 'poor group'. Another 212 patients were selected from the remaining cases with stratified sampling method to comprise the 'good group'. Significant differences were found in vascular invasion, grade and molecular subtype between the two groups. Expression of ER and PR in the 'poor group' was lower (P < 0.05). However, positive rates of Ki67, p53 and VEGF in the 'poor group' were higher (P < 0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed that molecular subtype, expression of VEGF, tumor grade, and vascular invasion were closely correlated with bad outcome. Analysis of the 'poor group' demonstrated that 'HER2 positive' and 'triple negative' subtypes more commonly suffered from distant metastases and death. No metastasis was found in patients with pure invasive papillary carcinoma, invasive cribriform carcinoma or adenoid cystic carcinoma, whereas the diagnoses of invasive micropapillary carcinoma, invasive apocrine carcinoma, invasive papillary carcinoma mixed with invasive ductal carcinoma, or metaplastic carcinoma were correlated with distant metastasis and death. In conclusion, molecular subtype and expression of VEGF are useful markers for predicting prognosis of ANN breast cancer patients. 'Luminal A-like' subtype has better outcome than others. Moreover, molecular subtypes have different recurrence patterns.