Future fire emissions associated with projected land use change in Sumatra

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Atmospheric Chemistry
• Ecology

Background:

• Indonesia faces rapid land use change, converting forests and peatlands for plantations.
• Fires are a primary method for land clearing and management, impacting regional air quality and global carbon dioxide levels.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine fire emissions from land use change and management in Sumatra.
• To assess the sensitivity of fire activity to meteorological variability.
• To estimate future fire emissions under various land use scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of fire emissions from 2005-2009 in Sumatra.
• Utilized Global Fire Emissions Database Version 3, land use change maps, and MODIS fire radiative power observations.
• Developed five land use change scenarios to project emissions for the next two decades.

Main Results:

• ~80% of 2005-2009 Sumatra emissions stemmed from land degradation or maintenance, not immediate conversion, especially in dry years.
• Future emissions (37-48%) are predicted to originate from peatswamps, despite their smaller land area, under various scenarios.
• Peat swamp conservation is identified as a critical factor for future emissions.

Conclusions:

• Fire emissions from land use change and maintenance significantly impact Sumatra's environment.
• The conservation status of Sumatra's peat swamps will largely determine future air quality and climate impacts in Equatorial Asia.
• Findings will inform atmospheric transport models to quantify public health impacts.