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Modelling the epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination in Germany--a Bayesian approach

Felix Weidemann1, Manuel Dehnert2, Judith Koch1

  • 1Department for Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.

Vaccine
|July 22, 2014
PubMed

Insights

Routine rotavirus (RV) infant vaccination significantly reduces RV infections in children under 5 years old in Germany. This study models the vaccine

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Vaccinology

Background:

  • Rotavirus (RV) infection is a leading cause of severe gastroenteritis in young children globally and in Germany.
  • The German Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) recommended routine RV infant immunization in 2013.
  • Statistical modeling was employed to predict the epidemiological impact of RV vaccination in Germany.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict the epidemiological impact of routine rotavirus (RV) vaccination in Germany.
  • To estimate RV vaccine effectiveness (VE) in a real-world setting.
  • To assess the population-level incidence of RV infection following high vaccination coverage.

Main Methods:

  • A dynamic, population-based transmission model for RV infection was developed.
  • Bayesian inference with adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo was used to estimate RV vaccine effectiveness (VE).
  • Data from communicable disease reporting and vaccination coverage surveys were utilized.

Main Results:

  • RV vaccination demonstrated high effectiveness (VE=96%) against symptomatic RV infection, maintaining maximum protection for approximately three years.
  • Routine vaccination at 90% coverage is predicted to decrease symptomatic RV incidence in children <5 years by 84%, including 2.5% from herd protection.
  • A potential increase in RV incidence was predicted for older age groups (5-59 years and >60 years) ten years post-vaccine introduction.

Conclusions:

  • Routine infant rotavirus (RV) vaccination is projected to substantially lower RV incidence in German children under 5 years old.
  • The study provides estimates of RV vaccine effectiveness (VE) and predicts population-level impacts.
  • Model and prediction uncertainties were addressed in evaluating future statements regarding RV vaccination impact.
Abstract

Keywords:
Bayesian inferenceEpidemiological impactRotavirusRoutine vaccinationTransmission modellingVaccine effectiveness

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