Modeling and forecasting livestock feed resources in India using climate variables

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Animal Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Livestock productivity in India relies heavily on feed resource availability and efficient utilization.
• Feed security is fundamental for effective livestock management, resource conservation, and productivity enhancement.
• Accurate assessment and forecasting of livestock feed resources are essential for strategic planning and policy development.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model and forecast livestock feed resource production in India for the next 20 years.
• To enhance the efficiency of forecasting models by incorporating climatic and non-climatic factors.
• To estimate current and future dry matter (DM) availability from various feed sources.

Main Methods:

• Collected and analyzed 40 years of data on crop production, land use, rainfall, and crop yields.
• Developed higher-order auto-regressive (AR) models for forecasting feed resource production.
• Integrated climatic variables (rainfall, deviation from normal) with non-climatic factors (crop area, yield, lag period) to improve model accuracy.

Main Results:

• The current total dry matter (DM) availability in India is estimated at 510.6 million tonnes (mt).
• This includes 47.2 mt from concentrates, 319.6 mt from crop residues, and 143.8 mt from greens.
• Forecasted DM availability for 2030 includes 409.4 mt from dry fodder, 135.6 mt from green fodder, and 61.2 mt from concentrates.

Conclusions:

• The study successfully developed efficient forecasting models for livestock feed resources in India.
• Accurate forecasting, incorporating climatic and non-climatic data, is vital for ensuring future feed security.
• The projected feed availability provides critical data for policy-making and sustainable livestock development.