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Scientists' views about attribution of global warming
Bart Verheggen1, Bart Strengers, John Cook
1PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Environmental Science & Technology
|July 23, 2014
Summary
Expert climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions drive global warming. Their estimates of this impact depend on understanding aerosol cooling effects, with improved IPCC reporting enhancing accuracy.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- A survey of 1868 scientists explored views on climate change drivers.
- Expertise level correlates with agreement on anthropogenic global warming.
- Previous IPCC reports may have underestimated greenhouse gas influence.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess expert consensus on climate change causation.
- To investigate factors influencing quantitative estimates of global warming drivers.
- To examine the role of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) and media coverage.
Main Methods:
- Survey of 1868 scientists across various climate change disciplines.
- Analysis of agreement based on publication record and expertise.
- Examination of quantitative estimates and views on contributing factors.
Main Results:
- 90% of highly published scientists agree greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the dominant driver.
- Quantitative GHG estimates are influenced by aerosol cooling effect knowledge.
- Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) identified as the most significant non-GHG factor.
Conclusions:
- Strong expert consensus exists on anthropogenic global warming.
- Refined IPCC reporting (AR5) better reflects GHG impact.
- Scientists with dissenting views reported more frequent media coverage.
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