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How detectable is predation in stage-structured populations? Insights from a simulation-testing analysis.

Kiva L Oken¹, Timothy E Essington²

¹Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, University of Washington, Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA.

The Journal of Animal Ecology

|July 25, 2014

Summary

Detecting predation

Keywords:

food webs interaction strengths population dynamics predator–prey dynamics top‐down effects

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Area of Science:

Marine ecology
Food web dynamics
Population ecology

Background:

Predation significantly influences marine food webs, but detecting its regulatory effects on prey is challenging.
Existing population data often lack age structure, and complex food webs involve ontogenetic shifts in predator-prey interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

To assess the reliability of detecting stage-structured predation from predator and prey biomass time series.
To evaluate how life-history traits and predation timing impact the detectability of predator effects.

Main Methods:

Simulated age-structured fish populations with distinct life histories.
Applied variable predation across different life stages.
Fit production models to population biomass time series to detect predator impacts.

Main Results:

Predation on early life stages (eggs, larvae, juveniles) caused greater production fluctuations and was more detectable.
Observation error and environmental variability obscured most predator signals.
Predation at multiple life stages reduced the ability to detect individual predator effects.

Conclusions:

Undetectable species interactions in biomass data may result from environmental variability and complex food webs.
Predation signals are strongest when predators primarily affect immature life stages.
Simulation testing is valuable for assessing the statistical power to detect predation effects.