Screening-level microbial risk assessment of urban water locations: a tool for prioritization

People in urban areas are exposed to microbial hazards in urban waters. In this study, various hazards, diseases, and water systems, where different recreation activities take place, are compared in an integrated quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). The event and annual probability of gastrointestinal illness (GI) and Legionnaires'disease (LD) were analyzed in QMRA models using selected literature data. Highest mean event probabilities of GI were found for playing in pluvial flood from a combined sewer overflow (34%), swimming (18%), and rowing (13%) in the river, swimming (8.7%) and rowing (4.5%) in the lake, and playing in a water playground (3.7%) and in the pluvial flood from stormwater sewers (4.7%). At these locations, the GI probability was above the EU Bathing Water Directive threshold for excellent water quality (3%). All the annual risk medians were below the national incidence of legionellosis of 0.002%. The illness probability was most sensitive to the pathogens concentration (particularly Campylobacter, Norovirus, and Legionella) and exposure frequency. Therefore, site-specific pathogen data collection is the best next step to strengthen the certainty of the risk estimates. This study created an evidence-base that was used by water authorities to understand the health risks and set priorities for risk management.