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Updated: Apr 26, 2026
04:57
Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
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A comparison of methods for assessing mortality risk
Morgan E Levine1, Eileen M Crimmins
1Davis School of Gerontology, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, 90089-0191.
Summary
Biological Age better predicts mortality than Allostatic Load and Framingham Risk Score. This measure is a more accurate summary of biological risk, especially for cancer and all-cause mortality.
Area of Science:
- Biomedical science
- Gerontology
- Public Health
Background:
- Allostatic Load, Framingham Risk Score, and Biological Age quantify biological state using multiple measures.
- These metrics aim to provide a single latent variable for assessing physiological status.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the predictive accuracy of Allostatic Load, Framingham Risk Score, and Biological Age for all-cause and disease-specific mortality.
- To evaluate these measures in a large, nationally representative U.S. sample.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from 9,942 adults (age 30+) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III.
- Employed Receiver Operating Characteristic curves and Cox Proportional Hazard models.
- Analyzed ten-year mortality prediction for the full sample and stratified age groups.
Main Results:
- Biological Age demonstrated superior prediction of 10-year mortality across all age ranges, particularly for ages 50-69 and 70+.
- Biological Age showed the strongest association with all-cause and cancer mortality.
- Framingham Risk Score was most strongly associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality.
Conclusions:
- Quantifying biological risk is crucial for understanding physiological changes and dysregulation.
- Biological Age presents a more accurate alternative to Allostatic Load and Framingham Risk Score for summarizing biological risk.
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