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Uncertainty: Overview

Uncertainty: Overview

In analytical chemistry, we often perform repetitive measurements to detect and minimize inaccuracies caused by both determinate and indeterminate errors. Despite the cares we take, the presence of random errors means that repeated measurements almost never have exactly the same magnitude. The collective difference between these measurements - observed values - and the estimated or expected value is called uncertainty. Uncertainty is conventionally written after the estimated or expected value.

Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error

Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error

An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...

Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals

Uncertainty: Confidence Intervals

The confidence interval is the range of values around the mean that contains the true mean. It is expressed as a probability percentage. The interpretation of a 95% confidence interval, for instance, is that the statistician is 95% confident that the true mean falls within the interval. The upper and lower limits of this range are known as confidence limits. The confidence limits for the true mean are estimated from the sample's mean, the standard deviation, and the statistical factor...

Uncertainty in Measurement: Reading Instruments

Uncertainty in Measurement: Reading Instruments

Counting is the type of measurement that is free from uncertainty, provided the number of objects being counted does not change during the process. Such measurements result in exact numbers. By counting the eggs in a carton, for instance, one can determine exactly how many eggs are there in the carton. Similarly, the numbers of defined quantities are also exact. For example, 1 foot is exactly 12 inches, 1 inch is exactly 2.54 centimeters, and 1 gram is exactly 0.001 kilograms. Quantities...

Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error

Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error

The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...

Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

A confidence interval is a better estimate of the population than a point estimate, as it uses a range of values from a sample instead of a single value.
Confidence intervals have confidence coefficients that are crucial for their interpretation. The most common confidence coefficients are 0.90, 0.95, and 0.99, which can be written as percentages–90%, 95%, and 99%, respectively.
Suppose a person calculates a confidence interval with a confidence coefficient of 0.95. In that case, they can...

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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations

Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations

Published on: September 16, 2015

Interpreting uncertainty terms.

Thomas Holtgraves¹

¹Department of Psychological Science, Ball State University.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

|August 5, 2014

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Ambiguous words like "some" are interpreted more negatively when face threat is high. This suggests a fundamental principle in language use affecting risk communication.

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Experimental Research Examining How People Can Cope with Uncertainty Through Soft Haptic Sensations

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Using the Threat Probability Task to Assess Anxiety and Fear During Uncertain and Certain Threat

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Published on: September 12, 2014

Area of Science:

Psycholinguistics
Social Psychology
Communication Studies

Background:

Uncertainty terms lack fixed referents, leading to ambiguity in communication.
Facework, the management of social image, can influence the interpretation of these terms.

Purpose of the Study:

To propose a model explaining how facework motives affect the interpretation of uncertainty terms.
To investigate the impact of face threat on the meaning of various uncertainty terms.

Main Methods:

Four experiments were conducted to examine the effects of face threat and related variables (e.g., power).
Participants interpreted various uncertainty terms (probability, quantifiers, frequency) in situations with differing levels of face threat.

Main Results:

Increased face threat led to more negative interpretations of utterances containing uncertainty terms.
This effect was observed across diverse types of uncertainty terms, indicating a consistent principle.

Conclusions:

The interpretation of uncertainty terms is significantly modulated by the perceived face threat in a communicative context.
Findings have implications for understanding risk communication and the conveyance of subjective experiences.