Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making
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Updated: Apr 26, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Carly N Cook1, Sohail Inayatullah2, Mark A Burgman3
1School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia; School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
Abstract:
Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda.
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