Rates of molecular evolution and the fraction of nucleotide positions free to vary

Selective constraints on DNA sequence change were incorporated into a model of DNA divergence by restricting substitutions to a subset of nucleotide positions. A simple model showed that both mutation rate and the fraction of nucleotide positions free to vary are strong determinants of DNA divergence over time. When divergence between two species approaches the fraction of positions free to vary, standard methods that correct for multiple mutations yield severe underestimates of the number of substitutions per site. A modified method appropriate for use with DNA sequence, restriction site, or thermal renaturation data is derived taking this fraction into account. The model also showed that the ratio of divergence in two gene classes (e.g., nuclear and mitochondrial) may vary widely over time even if the ratio of mutation rates remains constant. DNA sequence divergence data are used increasingly to detect differences in rates of molecular evolution. Often, variation in divergence rate is assumed to represent variation in mutation rate. The present model suggests that differing divergence rates among comparisons (either among gene classes or taxa) should be interpreted cautiously. Differences in the fraction of nucleotide positions free to vary can serve as an important alternative hypothesis to explain differences in DNA divergence rates.