Development of a prediction model to predict VO2(peak) in adolescent girls using the Bruce protocol to exhaustion

The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model based on a submaximal workload during the Bruce treadmill protocol to estimate peak oxygen consumption (VO2(peak)) in adolescent girls.

Adolescent girls (N = 116, M(age) = 13.2 +/- 2.0 years) performed a Bruce Treadmill Test to exhaustion. Expired respiratory gases and heart rate (HR) were collected and measured continuously via indirect calorimetry and telemetry. To be included in the analysis, each participant met 2 of 3 criteria: attain 95% of age-predicted HR(peak), respiratory exchange ratio > 1.05, or plateau of VO2. VO2 and HR at Stage 1 and Stage 2 of the Bruce test were entered into a regression model to predict VO2(peak).

A regression model, constructed using the predicted sum of squares statistic, was developed using VO2 (VO(2)2) and HR (HR2) attained at the 2nd 3-min stage of the Bruce treadmill protocol: VO2(peak) = 46.77 - (0.2854155 x HR2) + (1.46732912 x VO(2)2). Actual average (+/- SD) VO2(peak) was 36.2 +/- 6.9 ml x kg(-1) x min(-1) (range = 22.9-55.9). Predicted VO2(peak) was 36.2 +/- 5.5 ml x kg(-1) x min(-1) (range = 24.3-56.2). The correlation between actual and predicted VO2(peak) was r = .80, standard error of estimate = 4.2 ml x kg(-1) x min(-1), with no bias relative to participant aerobic fitness.

Based on this model, the VO2(peak) of healthy adolescent girls can be predicted within 4.2 ml x kg(-1) x min(-1) using submaximal Bruce data.