Milroy Lecture: eradication of disease: hype, hope and reality

The possibility for one generation to eradicate a disease is very motivating. It is also very difficult. The many failed eradication attempts outnumber the one current success (smallpox), although two eradication campaigns for polio and Guinea worm are tantalisingly close to their goals. The early stages of a well-planned eradication campaign generally go well; it is the last stage where technical, biological, social and political problems occur. This paper considers the opportunities and pitfalls in planning for eradication of a disease.