[Prognostic value of arterial pressure during exertion in hypertensive subjects]

We reviewed the course of 240 patients with uncomplicated essential hypertension whose condition has been initially evaluated between january 1976 and february 1979 with both exercise (bicycle) and casual BP. Their outcome was evaluated in the first months of 1988. Thirty-eight patients were lost to follow up. The remaining 202 patients (67 p. 100 males, mean age at entry 43 +/- 13 years, mean casual BP at entry 161 +/- 25/98 +/- 15) had a mean follow-up of 9.5 +/- 2 years. Events retained for the analysis were myocardial infarction (n = 12), angina pectoris with positive coronarography (n = 8), stroke (n = 8), cardiac failure (n = 2) and sudden death (n = 3). We performed a stepwise discriminant analysis first with only casual and end exercise systolic and diastolic BP, then after introducing age, overweight (Lorentz's formula), duration of hypertension, Sokoloff index and cholesterolemia.

the analysis with only BP shown that end exercise BP was the best predictor of outcome with 64 p. 100 of the subjects correctly classified (CC). After introducing the other risk factors, the significantly discriminant variables were 1) overweight (65 p. 100 CC) 2) age, 3) end exercise systolic BP, 4) cholesterolemia. These 4 variables adequately classified 70 p. 100 of the subjects. Another analysis was performed in patients with maximal exercise test and gave the following results: 1) overweight, 2) cholesterolemia, 3) end exercise systolic BP with 77 p. 100 patients CC. In women, the pronostic value of exercise BP seems less important than in men.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)