Pollination ecology and inbreeding depression control individual flowering phenologies and mixed mating

We analyze evolution of individual flowering phenologies by combining an ecological model of pollinator behavior with a genetic model of inbreeding depression for plant viability. The flowering phenology of a plant genotype determines its expected daily floral display which, together with pollinator behavior, governs the population rate of geitonogamous selfing (fertilization among flowers on the same plant). Pollinators select plant phenologies in two ways: they are more likely to visit plants displaying more flowers per day, and they influence geitonogamous selfing and consequent inbreeding depression via their abundance, foraging behavior, and pollen carry-over among flowers on a plant. Our model predicts two types of equilibria at stable intermediate selfing rates for a wide range of pollinator behaviors and pollen transfer parameters. Edge equilibria occur at maximal or minimal selfing rates and are constrained by pollinators. Internal equilibria occur between edge equilibria and are determined by a trade-off between pollinator attraction to large floral displays and avoidance of inbreeding depression due to selfing. We conclude that unavoidable geitonogamous selfing generated by pollinator behavior can contribute to the common occurrence of stable mixed mating in plants.