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Improved semi-distributed model for phosphorus losses from Irish catchments.

Igbal Ali, Michael Bruen

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    |August 23, 2014
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    Summary

    A new combined model (NCM) improves phosphorus loss prediction in Irish waters. This hybrid Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) model offers better flow and total phosphorus load simulations than standalone packages.

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    Area of Science:

    • Environmental Science
    • Hydrology
    • Water Quality Modeling

    Background:

    • Phosphorus (P) is a key limiting nutrient in Irish water bodies, impacting water quality.
    • Accurate models are crucial for understanding P transport and informing water management policies.
    • Existing models like Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) have limitations in P loss simulation.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop and evaluate a novel combined model (NCM) integrating SWAT and HSPF for enhanced phosphorus loss prediction.
    • To assess the NCM's performance against standalone SWAT and HSPF for flow and total phosphorus load simulations.
    • To determine if multi-objective optimization improves model accuracy compared to sequential optimization.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed a new combined model (NCM) by integrating SWAT and HSPF.
    • Tested the NCM using data from the Oona catchment in Ireland.
    • Evaluated model performance using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (R2) for flow and total phosphorus loads during calibration and validation periods.
    • Employed multi-objective optimization techniques.

    Main Results:

    • The NCM demonstrated superior flow simulation (higher R2) compared to SWAT alone, particularly with hourly time steps.
    • Total phosphorus load calibration in NCM yielded better R2 values than previously reported for HSPF or SWAT.
    • The NCM showed improved performance across most of the validation period for phosphorus load prediction.
    • Multi-objective optimization resulted in better simulated outcomes for both flow and total phosphorus loads.

    Conclusions:

    • The developed NCM effectively simulates flow and total phosphorus loads, outperforming standalone SWAT and HSPF.
    • The NCM provides a valuable tool for improving the prediction of phosphorus loss to water bodies in Ireland.
    • This model can aid in formulating effective policies for managing phosphorus pollution.