SIR DYNAMICS WITH ECONOMICALLY DRIVEN CONTACT RATES

The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model has greatly evidenced epidemiology despite its apparent simplicity. Most applications of the SIR framework use a form of nonlinear incidence to describe the number of new cases per instant. We adapt theorems to analyze the stability of SIR models with a generalized nonlinear incidence structure. These theorems are then applied to the case of standard incidence and incidence resulting from adaptive behavioral response based on epidemiological-economic theory. When adaptive behavior is included in the SIR model multiple equilibria and oscillatory epidemiological dynamics can occur over a greater parameter space. Our analysis, based on the epidemiological-economic incidence, provides new insights into epidemics as complex adaptive systems, highlights important nonlinearities that lead to complex behavior, and provides mechanistic motivation for a shift away from standard incidence, and outlines important areas of research related to the complex-adaptive dynamics of epidemics.