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Determining decision thresholds and evaluating indicators when conservation status is measured as a continuum.

B M Connors1, A B Cooper

  • 1School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada; ESSA Technologies, Vancouver, BC, Canada. bconnors@sfu.ca.

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Summary

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves can misrepresent conservation status reliability. Treating conservation status as a continuum improves accuracy in evaluating conservation indicators and their thresholds.

Keywords:
característica operante del receptor (ROC)clasificación de amenazasclassification errorconservation statuserror de clasificaciónestado de conservaciónfalse negativefalse positivefalso negativofalso positivoincertidumbreindicadorindicatorreceiver operating characteristic (ROC)signal detection theoryteoría de detección de señalesthreat classificationuncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Conservation biology
  • Ecology
  • Statistical modeling

Background:

  • Conservation status assessment relies on indicators and thresholds.
  • Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves are used to evaluate indicator reliability.
  • Traditional ROC curves assume discrete conservation status, limiting their application.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To modify ROC curves to treat conservation status as a continuum.
  • To explore the impact of continuous status and variation on indicator reliability.
  • To re-evaluate indicator thresholds for conservation status assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a modified ROC curve approach for continuous conservation status.
  • Investigated the influence of variation (random and measurement error) on classification rates.
  • Applied the modified ROC method to Pacific salmon and marine ecosystem indicators.

Main Results:

  • Failure to treat conservation status as a continuum leads to misidentified trade-offs.
  • Indicator reliability is overestimated when status is not treated as continuous.
  • Modified ROC curves provide a more accurate assessment of indicator performance.

Conclusions:

  • Conservation status should be treated as a continuum for ROC analysis.
  • Modified ROC curves enhance the evaluation of conservation indicators.
  • Accurate assessment of indicator reliability is crucial for effective conservation.