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Anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes
Francesco Mulargia1, Andrea Bizzarri2
1Università degli Studi di Bologna, Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia, Viale Carlo Berti Pichat, 6/2- 40127 Bologna - Italy.
Scientific Reports
|August 27, 2014
Summary
Anthropogenic activities, like fluid injection for oil and gas, can trigger large earthquakes on active faults. Even small fluid pressure increases (<0.1 MPa) may induce seismic events, with delays of years, making foreshock monitoring unreliable.
Area of Science:
- Geophysics
- Seismology
- Tectonophysics
Background:
- Earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults with measured crustal stress values.
- Static friction coefficients and effective triggering stresses on faults are empirically determined.
- Understanding earthquake nucleation is crucial for seismic hazard assessment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the physical mechanism of anthropogenic earthquake triggering.
- To determine the fluid pressure thresholds for triggering earthquakes on active faults.
- To assess the potential for induced seismicity from industrial fluid injection.
Main Methods:
- Applied the Tresca-Von Mises criterion within a poroelasticity framework.
- Derived a time-dependent solution for earthquake nucleation conditions.
- Compared theoretical fluid pressure requirements with in situ crustal stress measurements.
Main Results:
- Active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures as low as 0.1 MPa.
- Industrial fluid injection pressures (oil/gas production) can trigger destructive earthquakes.
- Induced seismicity can be delayed by years, independent of foreshock activity.
Conclusions:
- Anthropogenic fluid injection poses a significant risk for triggering large earthquakes.
- Earthquake triggering by fluid pressure is a time-dependent process.
- Monitoring foreshocks is insufficient for controlling or predicting induced earthquakes.
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