Winning counterterrorism's version of Pascal's wager, but struggling to open the purse

Brian J Gibbs1

  • 1Behavioural Science Insights,25 Waratah Avenue, Belgrave, VIC 3160, Australia; Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne, Carlton, VIC 3053, Australia. briangibbs@behaviouralscienceinsights.com www.behaviouralscienceinsights.com bgibbs@gsb.uchicago.eduwww.mbs.edu

Related Concept Videos

Pascal's Law01:04

Pascal's Law

In 1653, the French philosopher and scientist Blaise Pascal published "Treatise on the Equilibrium of Liquids," which discussed the principles of static fluids. A static fluid is a fluid that is not in motion. When a fluid is not flowing, we say that the fluid is in static equilibrium. If the fluid is water, we say it is in hydrostatic equilibrium. For a fluid in static equilibrium, the net force on any part of the fluid must be zero; otherwise, the fluid will start to flow. Pascal...
9.5K
Decision Making: P-value Method01:09

Decision Making: P-value Method

The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim  is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses:  a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
5.8K
Norton's Theorem01:14

Norton's Theorem

Norton's theorem is a fundamental principle stating that a linear two-terminal circuit can be substituted with an equivalent circuit, which comprises a current source (ⅠN) in parallel with a resistor (RN). Here, ⅠN represents the short-circuit current flowing through the terminals, and RN stands for the input or equivalent resistance at the terminals when all independent sources are deactivated. This implies that the circuit illustrated in Figure (a) can be exchanged with the one...
2.0K
Counterfactual Thinking01:19

Counterfactual Thinking

Counterfactual thinking is a cognitive process wherein individuals mentally reconstruct alternative versions of past events, often beginning with “what if” or “if only.” This reflective mechanism plays a significant role in shaping emotional experiences and guiding future behavior. Though typically triggered by unfavorable or unexpected outcomes, counterfactual thinking can also emerge in mundane, everyday decisions and experiences, revealing its deep entrenchment in...
431
Magical Thinking01:29

Magical Thinking

Magical thinking encompasses the belief in assumptions that defy logical reasoning yet appear intuitively convincing. It is a common psychological phenomenon that persists across various cultural and individual contexts. While these assumptions contradict empirical evidence and scientific laws, they often serve meaningful psychological roles in promoting emotional resilience and a sense of control, especially under stress or uncertainty.Thought-Action Fusion and the Law of SimilarityA key...
348
Binomial Expansion Using Pascal's Triangle01:30

Binomial Expansion Using Pascal's Triangle

Expanding a binomial expression such as (a + b)n results in a predictable sequence of terms that can be systematically derived using Pascal’s Triangle. This triangular array of numbers plays a central role in understanding and computing the coefficients of binomial expansions.Pascal’s Triangle is constructed such that each row corresponds to the coefficients of a binomial raised to a power. The topmost row, known as the zeroth row, corresponds to (a + b)0, and each successive row...
461