Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Evolutionary Biology
• Climate Change Science

Background:

• Phenological timing is crucial for individual fitness and population dynamics.
• Maladaptation in phenological traits due to climate change can negatively impact populations.
• Limited research exists on how climate change alters selection pressures on phenology.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate how climate change affects selection pressures on consumer phenology.
• To determine if and why climate change induces maladaptation in phenological traits.
• To analyze the impact of differential environmental change rates on phenological selection.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a theoretical modeling approach.
• Modeled environmentally sensitive phenologies for consumers and resources.
• Assessed consumer fitness based on phenological synchrony with resources.

Main Results:

• Under heterogeneous environmental change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient, leading to selection on consumer phenology.
• Even homogeneous environmental change induces directional selection on consumer phenology.
• This occurs because consumer reaction norms are historically flatter than resource reaction norms.

Conclusions:

• Climate change is expected to increase selection on consumer phenology across diverse scenarios.
• Both uniform and varied environmental shifts drive phenological selection.
• Understanding these dynamics is critical for predicting population responses to climate change.