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Unrealistic optimism bias is the tendency to overestimate the likelihood of positive outcomes. This cognitive bias makes individuals believe they are less likely to experience failures, setbacks, or risks and more likely to succeed than others. For example, people may assume they are less prone to health issues, accidents, or financial struggles than their peers, even when they share similar risk factors.One key component of this bias is the above-average effect, where individuals perceive...
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Magical thinking encompasses the belief in assumptions that defy logical reasoning yet appear intuitively convincing. It is a common psychological phenomenon that persists across various cultural and individual contexts. While these assumptions contradict empirical evidence and scientific laws, they often serve meaningful psychological roles in promoting emotional resilience and a sense of control, especially under stress or uncertainty.Thought-Action Fusion and the Law of SimilarityA key...
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Counterfactual thinking is a cognitive process wherein individuals mentally reconstruct alternative versions of past events, often beginning with “what if” or “if only.” This reflective mechanism plays a significant role in shaping emotional experiences and guiding future behavior. Though typically triggered by unfavorable or unexpected outcomes, counterfactual thinking can also emerge in mundane, everyday decisions and experiences, revealing its deep entrenchment in...
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 24, 2026

Task Interruption and Resumption Paradigm for Testing the Activation and Pursuit of an Abstract Thinking Goal
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The persistence of wishful thinking.

Nicholas J L Brown, Alan D Sokal1, Harris L Friedman2

  • 1New York University.

The American Psychologist
|September 9, 2014
PubMed
Summary

This study critiques claims about critical positivity ratios, finding no evidence for "flourishing" or "languishing" tipping points. The mathematical model used was withdrawn, and empirical support remains unsubstantiated.

Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Nonlinear Dynamics

Background:

  • Fredrickson and Losada (2005) proposed critical positivity ratios for flourishing.
  • Their claims were based on a nonlinear dynamics model (Lorenz equations).
  • Brown, Sokal, & Friedman (2013) previously debunked the model's applicability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To comment on Fredrickson and Losada's reaffirmed claims regarding positivity ratios.
  • To evaluate the empirical evidence supporting critical positivity ratios.
  • To address the existence of
  • tipping points
  • in positivity ratios.

Main Methods:

  • Critique of mathematical modeling in psychological research.

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  • Analysis of empirical studies cited as evidence for positivity ratios.
  • Review of theoretical claims regarding psychological "tipping points".

    • Main Results:

    • The nonlinear dynamics model by Fredrickson and Losada (2005) has been withdrawn.
    • Empirical evidence for critical positivity ratios remains insufficient.
    • No substantiation found for specific "flourish" and "languish" thresholds.

    Conclusions:

    • The theoretical and empirical basis for critical positivity ratios is questionable.
    • Further rigorous research is needed to validate any psychological "tipping points".
    • Claims of specific flourishing and languishing ratios lack robust support.