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Updated: Oct 18, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 3, 2007
An alternative stochastic framework for estimating pure measures of fertility
Abstract:
A stochastic fertility model is developed that incorporates a state of "viable pregnancy" within parity i. This model is used as a framework to derive formulas expressing relationships between various central rates and probabilities within parity i. Specifically, formulas are derived to relate the total fertility rate with the parity progression probability, a pregnancy rate with a pregnancy progression probability, and a direct fertility rate with a direct parity progression probability.
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