Short-term change in eGFR and risk of cardiovascular events

Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on a single occasion is associated with risk of cardiovascular events; whether the degree of change in eGFR during a 1-year period adds prognostic information is unknown.

We included adults who had ≥2 outpatient eGFR measurements (≥6 months apart) during a 1-year accrual period in Alberta, Canada. According to recent guidelines, we used a change in eGFR category (≥90, 60 to 89, 45 to 59, 30 to 44, 15 to 29, and <15 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)), and the presence/absence of a ≥25% change from baseline to classify participants into 5 groups: certain drop, uncertain drop, stable (no change), uncertain rise, and certain rise. We calculated adjusted rates of cardiovascular events (per 10 000 person-years) for each group. We estimated the adjusted risks of cardiovascular events associated with each category of change in eGFR, in reference to stable kidney function. Among the 526 388 participants, 76.1% (n=400 560) had stable, 2.6% (n=13 668) had a certain drop, and 3.3% (n=17 499) had a certain rise in eGFR. Compared with participants with stable kidney function, adjusted risks of myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke were 27%, 51%, and 20% higher, respectively, for those with a certain drop in kidney function. After adjusting for the last eGFR at the end of the accrual period, the observed association diminished.

Clinically relevant changes in eGFR are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, most of the apparent increase in risk can be accounted for by assessing comorbidity and baseline kidney function.