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A predictive microsimulation model to estimate the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol
Clément François1, Philippe Laramée, Nora Rahhali
1Lundbeck SAS, Issy-les-Moulineaux, France.
Background:
Alcohol consumption is one of the most important factors for disease and disability in Europe. In clinical trials, nalmefene has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of heavy-drinking days (HDDs) per month and total alcohol consumption (TAC) among alcohol-dependent patients versus placebo.
Methods:
A microsimulation model was developed to estimate alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries in patients with alcohol dependence and to explore the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption.
Results:
For all diseases and injuries considered, the number of events (inpatient episodes) increased with the number of HDDs and TAC per year. The model predicted that a reduction of 20 HDDs per year would result in 941 fewer alcohol-attributable events per 100,000 patients, while a reduction in intake of 3,000 g/year of pure alcohol (ethanol) would result in 1,325 fewer events per 100,000 patients.
Conclusion:
The potential gains of reducing consumption in alcohol-dependent patients were considerable.
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