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Tornado intensity estimated from damage path dimensions.

James B Elsner1, Thomas H Jagger1, Ian J Elsner2

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study estimates tornado intensity using continuous path dimensions, offering a more detailed analysis than categorical scales. This new method reveals significant intensity increases with path length, width, and fatalities, aiding climatology and engineering applications.

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Area of Science:

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Meteorology
  • Tornado Climatology

Background:

  • Tornado destructive power is evident, but direct intensity measurement is dangerous.
  • Existing categorical scales (e.g., Enhanced Fujita scale) have limitations for trend analysis.
  • Categorical scales inadequately separate tornado intensity from frequency.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a continuous method for estimating tornado intensity.
  • To correlate continuous intensity estimates with damage path dimensions and fatalities.
  • To enable advanced analyses of tornado databases for climatological and engineering applications.

Main Methods:

  • Estimated tornado intensity on a continuum using damage path length and width.
  • Treated Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale wind speeds as interval censored data.
  • Regressed wind speeds onto path dimensions and fatalities using a regression model.

Main Results:

  • A 100 km increase in path length correlated with a 25% increase in expected intensity (above 29 m/s).
  • A 1 km increase in path width correlated with a 17% increase in expected intensity.
  • Observed fatalities showed a 43% increase in expected intensity, controlling for path dimensions.
  • Estimated wind speeds showed a .77 correlation with Doppler radar estimates.

Conclusions:

  • Continuous intensity estimation from path dimensions provides valuable data beyond categorical scales.
  • Path length, width, and fatalities are significant predictors of tornado intensity.
  • Further research is needed to understand upward trends in tornado path dimensions.