Related Experiment Video
Updated: Apr 23, 2026
10:46
A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
10.3K
Estimating unbiased phenological trends by adapting site-occupancy models
Ecology
|September 19, 2014
Summary
Climate change impacts species phenology, but traditional methods are biased. A new site-occupancy model accurately estimates phenological shifts, revealing delayed bird arrival and altered butterfly flight periods.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Biology
- Biodiversity Monitoring
Background:
- Climate warming drives phenological shifts in plants and animals, affecting timing of life events like spring appearance and reproduction.
- Traditional phenology measures are prone to bias from factors like population size, survey effort, and detection probability.
- Robust, comparable phenological measures are crucial for understanding species' responses to climate change.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a novel, robust method for estimating phenological events (arrival/departure dates) using site-occupancy models.
- To address biases inherent in traditional phenological data analysis.
- To provide a flexible tool applicable to various monitoring datasets.
Main Methods:
- Developed a new method based on site-occupancy models to estimate species arrival and departure dates.
- Validated the method using simulated data, demonstrating its accuracy under changing detection probabilities and site occupancy.
- Applied the method to long-term biodiversity data from Switzerland, analyzing songbird arrival and butterfly flight periods.
Main Results:
- The new method provided virtually unbiased estimates of phenological events.
- Two long-distance migrant songbirds showed a trend of postponing spring arrival by -0.5 days per year (1995-2012).
- Short-distance migrating butterflies exhibited a shorter flight period, while long-distance migrants' flight periods remained stable.
Conclusions:
- The developed site-occupancy modeling approach offers a robust and unbiased way to assess phenological shifts.
- Long-distance migrant songbirds in Switzerland are delaying spring arrival, contrary to short-distance migrants.
- Phenological responses vary by species' migratory distance, highlighting complex ecological impacts of climate change.
Related Concept Videos
02:45Biological Clocks and Seasonal Responses
35.9K
The circadian—or biological—clock is an intrinsic, timekeeping, molecular mechanism that allows plants to coordinate physiological activities over 24-hour cycles called circadian rhythms. Photoperiodism is a collective term for the biological responses of plants to variations in the relative lengths of dark and light periods. The period of light-exposure is called the photoperiod.
35.9K
02:02Ecological Niches
22.2K
All organisms have a position within an ecosystem. The complete set of living and nonliving factors—including food resources, climate, and terrain—that define the position of a given organism are collectively referred to as the organism’s ecological niche.
22.2K
02:30Naturalistic Observations
15.1K
If you want to understand how behavior occurs, one of the best ways to gain information is to simply observe the behavior in its natural context. However, people might change their behavior in unexpected ways if they know they are being observed. How do researchers obtain accurate information when people tend to hide their natural behavior? As an example, imagine that your professor asks everyone in your class to raise their hand if they always wash their hands after using the restroom. Chances...
15.1K
02:16Light Acquisition
8.0K
In order to produce glucose, plants need to capture sufficient light energy. Many modern plants have evolved leaves specialized for light acquisition. Leaves can be only millimeters in width or tens of meters wide, depending on the environment. Due to competition for sunlight, evolution has driven the evolution of increasingly larger leaves and taller plants, to avoid shading by their neighbors with contaminant elaboration of root architecture and mechanisms to transport water and nutrients.
8.0K
01:14Temperature Measurement Sites
4.2K
A thermometer measures body temperature. The common sites for measuring body temperature are the oral cavity, axillary region, temporal artery, and skin surface, such as the forehead, abdomen, and axilla. True core body temperature is assessed in the rectum, tympanic membrane, pulmonary artery, esophagus, and urinary bladder.
Oral: When assessing oral temperature, the thermometer tip should be placed under the tongue in the posterior sublingual pocket. It offers accurate readings and can be...
Oral: When assessing oral temperature, the thermometer tip should be placed under the tongue in the posterior sublingual pocket. It offers accurate readings and can be...
4.2K
02:17Ecological Succession
19.0K
Ecological succession is influenced by the processes of facilitation, inhibition, and toleration. Facilitation occurs when early successional species create more favorable ecological conditions for subsequent species, such as enhanced nutrient, water, or light availability. In contrast, inhibition happens when early successional species create unfavorable ecological conditions for potential successive species, such as limiting resource availability. In some cases, later successional species...
19.0K