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Childhood diabetes mellitus: an increasing incidence
A C Burden1, J R Hearnshaw, P G Swift
1Leicester General Hospital, UK.
Insights
Childhood diabetes incidence in Leicestershire significantly increased from 1951-1980. Rates more than doubled in the 1970s, affecting all age groups and both genders.
Area of Science:
- Pediatrics
- Endocrinology
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Childhood diabetes incidence has been tracked prospectively in Leicestershire since the 1940s.
- The register utilizes individual consultant records, specialist nurse data, and birth/death records for comprehensive data collection.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the incidence rates of childhood diabetes in Leicestershire over several decades.
- To analyze trends and statistical significance of changes in childhood diabetes incidence.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a long-standing prospective register of children with diabetes in Leicestershire.
- Incorporated population data, hospital admission records, and insulin conversion registers for accuracy assessment.
- Employed statistical analyses including confidence intervals and regression analysis to evaluate incidence trends.
Main Results:
- Childhood diabetes incidence (0-14 years) rose from 3.84/100,000 (1951-1960) to 10.6/100,000 (1971-1980).
- The increase was statistically significant (p<0.05 to p<0.001) across all analyzed age groups (0-4, 5-9, 10-14) and genders, with one exception.
- Regression analysis showed a strong positive correlation (r=0.79) between time and incidence rates.
Conclusions:
- A significant upward trend in childhood diabetes incidence was observed in Leicestershire between 1951 and 1980.
- The findings highlight a concerning rise in pediatric diabetes cases over a 30-year period.
- Further research is warranted to investigate the underlying causes of this increasing trend.
Abstract:
The incidence of childhood diabetes was determined using the register of Leicestershire children with diabetes and from the population of Leicestershire. The register was commenced in the 1940s and has continued since then prospectively, being based on individual consultant records, specialist nurse records, and the Register of Births and Deaths. Accuracy was determined from hospital admission data and the U 100 insulin conversion register achieved in 1983. The incidence rates for all children of 0-14 years inclusive in the decade 1951-1960 was 3.84 patients per 100,000 per year. This increased to 5.34 during the period 1961-1970, and further increased in the years 1971-1980 to 10.6 patients per 100,000 per year. This was significant (p less than 0.05) using the 95% confidence interval of the odds ratio and very significant (p less than 0.001) by regression analysis (correlation coefficient r = 0.79). Statistically significant changes were found in each of the age groups 0-4, 5-9, and 10-14 years, and for girls and boys within those age groups (except boys aged 10-14 years).