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Atmospheric controls on northeast Pacific temperature variability and change, 1900-2012.
James A Johnstone1, Nathan J Mantua2
1Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195; and jajstone@gmail.com.
Summary
Northeast Pacific coastal warming over the last century was primarily driven by natural atmospheric circulation changes, not external climate forcings. These shifts explain most of the observed sea surface and air temperature increases.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Northeast Pacific coastal temperatures exhibit multidecadal variability linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
- A warming trend of 0.5-1 °C is superimposed on these variations over the last century.
Purpose of the Study:
- Investigate northeast Pacific atmosphere-ocean variability from 1900-2012.
- Analyze coastal temperature trends and their drivers using independent data records.
Main Methods:
- Employed a linear stochastic time series model.
- Utilized sea-level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperature (SST), and surface air temperature (SAT) data.
- Compared findings with climate model simulations under historical radiative forcings.
Main Results:
- Regional atmospheric forcing and ocean persistence explained 63% of monthly and 73% of annual SST variance.
- SLP reductions and associated atmospheric forcing caused century-long warming, particularly from 1910-1940.
- Atmospheric circulation changes accounted for over 80% of the observed warming in coastal SST and Pacific Northwest SAT.
Conclusions:
- Natural, internally generated atmospheric circulation changes were the main driver of NE Pacific coastal warming (1900-2012).
- Climate models failed to replicate observed regional circulation trends.
- Regional variability mechanisms can operate on century-long timescales.
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