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Model-based patterns in stomach cancer mortality worldwide.

Bárbara Peleteiro1, Milton Severo, Carlo La Vecchia

  • 1aDepartment of Clinical Epidemiology, Predictive Medicine and Public Health, University of Porto Medical School bInstitute of Public Health, University of Porto (ISPUP), Porto, Portugal cDepartment of Epidemiology, IRCCS-Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri dDepartment of Medical Sciences and Public Health, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.

European Journal of Cancer Prevention : the Official Journal of the European Cancer Prevention Organisation (ECP)
|September 27, 2014
PubMed
Summary

Global stomach cancer mortality shows distinct patterns, decreasing over time. Countries with initially high rates experienced the largest proportional declines, suggesting a sequential, ~70-year model of mortality variation.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Cancer Research

Background:

  • Stomach cancer mortality rates vary globally.
  • Observed decreases in mortality are not attributed to specific interventions.
  • A common model of variation across countries is suspected.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify model-based patterns in worldwide stomach cancer mortality time trends.
  • To analyze age-standardized mortality rates between 1980 and 2010.
  • To understand the temporal relationship between different mortality patterns.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized World Health Organization mortality data for 62 countries.
  • Employed sex-specific mixed-effects models to analyze time trends.
  • Applied model-based clustering to identify distinct mortality patterns.

Main Results:

  • Identified three distinct, sex-similar patterns of stomach cancer mortality.
  • Pattern 1 showed the highest 1980 mortality rates; Pattern 3 showed the lowest.
  • A ~20-year lag between adjacent patterns suggests a sequential, ~70-year variation model.

Conclusions:

  • Propose a three-stage model for stomach cancer mortality variation.
  • Countries with lower initial mortality exhibited the greatest proportional decrease.
  • The findings suggest a predictable, sequential progression of mortality trends.