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The time response of a linear time-invariant (LTI) system can be divided into transient and steady-state responses. The transient response represents the system's initial reaction to a change in input and diminishes to zero over time. In contrast, the steady-state response is the behavior that persists after the transient effects have faded.
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Prolonged instability prior to a regime shift.

Trisha L Spanbauer1, Craig R Allen2, David G Angeler3

  • 1Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America.

Plos One
|October 4, 2014
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Ecosystems can undergo long reorganization periods before abrupt regime shifts. Paleoecological data reveal ~2000 years of instability preceding a shift, linked to climate change.

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Area of Science:

  • Paleoecology
  • Ecosystem Dynamics
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Regime shifts are typically defined as abrupt system changes.
  • However, these shifts may result from prolonged, unseen reorganization.
  • Statistical analysis of single components can mask long-term instability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test for regime shifts using a long-term paleoecological dataset.
  • To investigate the duration of system reorganization prior to a known species assemblage change.
  • To examine the relationship between ecosystem instability, regime shifts, and climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a high-resolution, long-term paleoecological dataset.
  • Applied univariate and multivariate statistical methods.
  • Employed Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling to detect instability and regime shifts.

Main Results:

  • Identified a ~2000-year period of instability preceding the regime shift.
  • The period of instability and the regime shift coincided with regional climate change.
  • Demonstrated extrinsic forcing as a driver of ecosystem change.

Conclusions:

  • Paleoecological records are valuable for testing regime shift detection tools.
  • Ecosystems can exhibit multi-millennial stability and reorganization phases.
  • Understanding long-term dynamics is crucial for assessing ecosystem resilience to climate change.