Robust detection of individual forensic profiles in DNA mixtures

For a forensic identification method to be admissible in international courts, the probability of false match must be quantified. For comparison of individuals against complex mixtures using a panel of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), the probability of a random man not excluded, P(RMNE) is one admissible standard. While the P(RMNE) of SNP alleles has been previously studied, it remains to be rigorously defined and calculated for experimentally genotyped mixtures. In this report, exact P(RMNE) values were calculated for a range of complex mixtures, verified with Monte Carlo simulations, and compared alongside experimentally determined detection probabilities.