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Published on: December 9, 2016
Breast cancer incidence and mortality in a transitioning Chinese population: current and future trends
I O L Wong1, C M Schooling2, B J Cowling1
1School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Background:
Projections of future trends in cancer incidence and mortality are important for public health planning.
Methods:
By using 1976-2010 data in Hong Kong, we fitted Poisson age-period-cohort models and made projections for future breast cancer incidence and mortality to 2025.
Results:
Age-standardised breast cancer incidence (/mortality) is projected to increase (/decline) from 56.7 (/9.3) in 2011-2015 to 62.5 (/8.6) per 100,000 women in 2021-2025.
Conclusions:
The incidence pattern may relate to Hong Kong's socio-economic developmental history, while falling mortality trends are, most likely, due to improvements in survival from treatment advancement and improved health service delivery.
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