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Prospecting Microbial Strains for Bioremediation and Probiotics Development for Metaorganism Research and Preservation

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Published on: October 31, 2019

World population stabilization unlikely this century.

Patrick Gerland¹, Adrian E Raftery², Hana Sevčíková³

¹Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017, USA. gerland@un.org raftery@u.washington.edu.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|October 11, 2014

Summary

World population growth is unlikely to stop this century, with projections indicating a rise to 9.6-12.3 billion by 2100. This demographic shift, driven by fertility rates, will impact Africa significantly and alter dependency ratios globally.

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Area of Science:

Demography
Population Studies
Global Health

Background:

Previous population projections suggested a stabilization or decline in global population growth.
The United Nations (UN) has historically provided population estimates using various methodologies.

Purpose of the Study:

To analyze the latest UN population projections using a Bayesian probabilistic methodology.
To reassess the likelihood of continued world population growth throughout the 21st century.

Main Methods:

Utilized a Bayesian probabilistic methodology for population projection analysis.
Incorporated data available up to 2012 for the projections.
Compared results with traditional UN high and low variant projections.

Main Results:

World population is unlikely to stop growing this century, contrary to some prior literature.
An 80% probability exists for the global population to reach between 9.6 and 12.3 billion by 2100.
Population increase is projected to be concentrated in Africa, influenced by fertility rates and declining fertility decline pace.
A substantial decline in the working-age to older population ratio is anticipated across all nations.

Conclusions:

The world population is projected to continue growing significantly through 2100.
Africa is expected to be a primary driver of future population growth.
Demographic shifts will lead to challenges in supporting aging populations globally.