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Related Concept Videos

The Carbon Cycle01:14

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Carbon is the basis of all organic matter on Earth, and is recycled through the ecosystem in two primary processes: one in which carbon is exchanged among living organisms, and one in which carbon is cycled over long periods of time through fossilized organic remains, weathering of rocks, and volcanic activity. Human activities, including increased agricultural practices and the burning of fossil fuels, has greatly affected the balance of the natural carbon cycle.
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Apr 21, 2026

Monitoring Pedogenic Inorganic Carbon Accumulation Due to Weathering of Amended Silicate Minerals in Agricultural Soils.
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Predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Yiqi Luo1, Trevor F Keenan, Matthew Smith

  • 1Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA; Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China.

Global Change Biology
|October 21, 2014
PubMed
Summary

Terrestrial ecosystems absorb significant carbon emissions. This study reveals the intrinsic predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle, guiding future research on carbon sequestration and ecosystem dynamics.

Keywords:
climate changedata assimilationdata-model fusiondisturbance events and regimesmathematical model of carbon cyclemodel tractability and traceabilityparameterizationsoil carbon dynamicsvegetation

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Area of Science:

  • Earth System Science
  • Ecology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Terrestrial ecosystems sequester approximately 30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions.
  • Current estimates rely on atmospheric and oceanic data, not direct ecosystem studies.
  • The intrinsic predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle remains largely unquantified.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the fundamental properties of the terrestrial carbon cycle.
  • To examine the intrinsic predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle.
  • To propose research directions for improving empirical understanding and model predictive ability.

Main Methods:

  • Isolated endogenous internal processes from exogenous forcing variables.
  • Identified five fundamental properties common to all terrestrial ecosystems.
  • Analyzed how these properties constrain predictability in response to external factors.

Main Results:

  • Five fundamental properties (compartmentalization, photosynthesis, partitioning, donor-dominant transfers, first-order decay) govern the terrestrial carbon cycle.
  • These properties impose emergent constraints on the predictability of carbon cycle components.
  • Predictability varies across different carbon cycle components under external forcing.

Conclusions:

  • Understanding the intrinsic predictability of the terrestrial carbon cycle is crucial.
  • Predictability insights should guide future observational, experimental, and modeling research.
  • Focus should be on improving predictions for less predictable components and understanding highly predictable ones.