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Effect of risk aversion on prioritizing conservation projects.

Ayesha I T Tulloch1, Richard F Maloney, Liana N Joseph

  • 1ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, the NERP Environmental Decisions Hub, Centre for Biodiversity & Conservation Science, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia. a.tulloch@uq.edu.au.

Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
|October 21, 2014
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Conservation decisions involve balancing risk and reward. This study shows that accounting for decision-makers' risk tolerance optimizes conservation investments, maximizing benefits for threatened species.

Keywords:
Project Prioritization ProtocolProtocolo de Priorización de Proyectosanálisis de rentabilidadanálisis de riesgoconservation decision makingcost-effectiveness analysisefectividad de manejoespecies amenazadasincertidumbremanagement effectivenessrisk analysisrisk tolerancethreatened speciestolerancia de riesgotoma de decisiones de conservaciónuncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Environmental Management

Background:

  • Conservation agencies face uncertainty when allocating resources for threat mitigation actions.
  • Decision-making often involves a trade-off between high-probability, guaranteed benefits and high-risk, high-reward projects.
  • Risk aversion, or unwillingness to accept uncertain outcomes, significantly influences conservation investment priorities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare a conservative probability threshold approach with a variance-discounting heuristic for prioritizing conservation actions.
  • To investigate how decision-makers' risk tolerance affects conservation investment priorities for threatened species.
  • To provide guidance on incorporating risk preferences into conservation decision-making frameworks.

Main Methods:

  • Applied cost-effectiveness prioritization to 700 threatened species and 8303 management actions in New Zealand.
  • Compared a probability threshold approach (excluding high-risk projects) with a variance-discounting heuristic (explicitly accounting for risk tolerance).
  • Analyzed how different risk preferences and prioritization approaches influenced species selection for management.

Main Results:

  • Both decision-makers' risk tolerance and the chosen approach significantly impacted prioritization outcomes.
  • The probability threshold approach minimized uncertainty but selected more expensive projects.
  • Variance discounting maximized expected benefits by prioritizing species with higher extinction risk and conservation value.

Conclusions:

  • Explicitly incorporating risk preferences can lead to better allocation of limited conservation resources.
  • Lower risk tolerance resulted in fewer species being managed, highlighting the impact of aversion to failure.
  • Transparency in risk tolerance and embracing risk within an adaptive management framework are recommended to maximize conservation benefits and prevent extinctions.