Modeling colony collapse disorder in honeybees as a contagion

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology

Background:

• Honeybee pollination is crucial for agriculture, valued at over $14 billion annually in the US.
• Recent years have seen mysterious mass honeybee die-offs, termed Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD), threatening apiaries.
• Existing models primarily focus on infection dynamics, neglecting broader hive health and extinction factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a comprehensive mathematical model for honeybee colony health and extinction.
• To investigate the role of transmissible infections and foraging behavior in Colony Collapse Disorder.
• To analyze Allee effects and critical hive population sizes under CCD scenarios.

Main Methods:

• A system of three ordinary differential equations was formulated to simulate hive population dynamics.
• The model incorporates both healthy hive behavior and extinction due to CCD.
• Numerical analysis was employed to study various scenarios and identify critical population thresholds.

Main Results:

• The model successfully simulates multiple hive population behaviors, including Allee effects and colony collapse.
• Accelerated forager recruitment was identified as a key factor in the rapid emptying of hives during CCD events.
• Critical hive sizes necessary for colony survival under different conditions were determined.

Conclusions:

• A novel mathematical model provides insights into the complex dynamics of Colony Collapse Disorder.
• Forager behavior and infection transmission significantly impact honeybee colony survival.
• Understanding these dynamics is crucial for mitigating CCD and protecting vital agricultural pollinators.