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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Climate Change Biology
  • Conservation Science

Background:

  • Predictive models for climate change extinction risk often focus on species' exposure to climate change and their ability to track suitable climates.
  • Exposure, however, is only one facet of extinction risk; a species' intrinsic tolerance to changing climate, its sensitivity, is also crucial.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To examine the individual roles of exposure and sensitivity in climate change extinction risk for terrestrial amphibians and mammals.
  • To investigate the relationships between species' sensitivities and exposures across different species and regions.
  • To assess how explicitly considering both sensitivity and exposure influences predictions of climate change impacts on biodiversity.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of climate change exposure for various species.
  • Assessment of species' intrinsic sensitivity to climate change.
  • Comparative analysis of exposure and sensitivity patterns across taxa (amphibians, mammals) and geographic regions.

Main Results:

  • Species' sensitivities to climate change were found to be incongruent with their projected exposures.
  • A significant number of highly sensitive species face low climate change exposure, while many highly exposed species exhibit relative insensitivity.
  • Separating sensitivity from exposure revealed distinct patterns in the drivers of extinction risk not apparent from exposure-only predictions.

Conclusions:

  • Explicitly incorporating both sensitivity and exposure is essential for accurate assessments of species' extinction risk due to climate change.
  • Understanding the interplay between sensitivity and exposure provides deeper insights into the causes and mechanisms of climate change-driven biodiversity loss.
  • Conservation strategies must account for both a species' vulnerability (sensitivity) and the environmental changes it will face (exposure).