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Patterns and potential drivers of dramatic changes in Tibetan lakes, 1972-2010
Yingkui Li1, Jingjuan Liao2, Huadong Guo2
1Department of Geography, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, United States of America; Key Laboratory of Digital Earth Science, Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, P.R. China.
Plos One
|November 6, 2014
Summary
Tibetan Plateau lakes are expanding due to rising temperatures and permafrost thaw, not glacier melt. This finding is crucial for water resource management in South and East Asia.
Area of Science:
- Earth Science
- Hydrology
- Glaciology
Background:
- Glacier melt has been considered the primary driver of lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau.
- However, recent observations suggest a more complex dynamic influencing these water bodies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the drivers of lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau.
- To assess the role of glacier melt versus other factors like precipitation and permafrost thaw in lake dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of lake extents and levels using Landsat/ICESat data from 1970 to 2010.
- Comparison of lake change patterns with glacier retreat data and climate variations.
Main Results:
- A southwest-northeast transition in lake dynamics was observed, from shrinking to stable to rapid expansion.
- Lake expansion patterns contrast with glacier retreat patterns, indicating limited glacier melt influence.
- Over 79% of lakes in continuous permafrost regions are expanding, independent of glacial melt.
Conclusions:
- Permafrost degradation, driven by rising temperatures, is a significant factor in Tibetan Plateau lake expansion.
- Glacier melt plays a limited role in the observed lake dynamics.
- Understanding permafrost thaw is critical for predicting future water availability for South and East Asia.
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