Sources of Variability in Performance Times at the World Orienteering Championships

An improvement equal to 0.3 of the typical variation in an elite athlete's race-to-race performance estimates the smallest worthwhile enhancement, which has not yet been determined for orienteers. Moreover, much of the research in high-performance orienteering has focused on physical and cognitive aspects, although course characteristics might influence race performance. Analysis of race data provides insights into environmental effects and other aspects of competitive performance. Our aim was to examine such factors in relation to World Orienteering Championships performances.

We used mixed linear modelling to analyze finishing times from the three qualification rounds and final round of the sprint, middle-distance, and long-distance disciplines of World Orienteering Championships from 2006 to 2013. Models accounted for race length, distance climbed, number of controls, home advantage, venue identity, round (qualification final), athlete identity, and athlete age.

Within-athlete variability (coefficient of variation, mean ± SD) was lower in the final (4.9% ± 1.4%) than in the qualification (7.3% ± 2.4%) rounds and provided estimates of smallest worthwhile enhancements of 1.0%-3.5%. The home advantage was clear in most disciplines, with distance climbed particularly impacting sprint performances. Small to very large between-venue differences were apparent. Performance predictability expressed as intraclass correlation coefficients was extremely high within years and was high to very high between years. Age of peak performance ranged from 27 to 31 yr.

Our results suggest that elite orienteers should focus on training and strategies that enhance performance by at least 1.0%-3.5% for smallest worthwhile enhancement. Moreover, as greater familiarity with the terrain likely mediated the home advantage, foreign athletes would benefit from training in nations hosting the World Orienteering Championships for familiarization.